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While recent economic troubles have kept carbon emissions about 1.4 percent lower than expected, 2010 records showed a surprising increase in fossil fuel use. Emissions have increased by 49 percent since 1990, or a rate of about 3.1 percent per year. This suggests that current attempts to avoid significant climate change may be ineffective.
As students in PhD programs like environmental science very well know, about 80 percent of the world’s energy still comes from burning fossil fuels, with the remaining 20 percent made up of solar power, geothermal energy, wind power and other alternative sources. The pace at which humans produce fossil fuel emissions increases the risk of temperatures rising high enough to cause severe agricultural problems, ice melt and weather pattern changes. As of 2011, few governments or corporations are making major changes to reduce fuel use, so emissions are expected to keep on growing at roughly the same rate.
According to a report released December 3rd by the Global Carbon Project, emissions rose by 5.9 percent in 2010, as economies around the world recovered slightly from the recession. About half the increase in carbon emissions comes from burning coal in large power plants. As more areas develop and begin to use electricity, this number may continue to rise. Currently China, with a population of over one billion, accounts for most of the increase, followed by India and other developing countries as they transition to a modern lifestyle for more of their population.
These figures make it look as though wealthy countries in Western Europe and North America have successfully cut their emissions slightly. However, most emissions tracking reports don’t take into account the fact that many of these countries have exported much of their manufacturing to developing nations, taking emissions with it. Most factories and manufacturing processes use a lot of energy, which adds to the great emissions increase in developing countries. In essence, rich countries have simply moved their pollution to poorer ones.
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Coal power plant at night. Credit: Scott Butner.
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Most scientists say that this rapid increase in emissions is making the Earth warmer, threatening plants, animals and humans. However, cutting fossil fuel use and the emissions that come from it isn’t easy. Many people rely on vehicles, power plants and home heating systems that use these polluting fuels every day. Transitioning to renewable sources of electricity, designing efficient structures and reducing waste has a high potential return, but the initial increase in cost and inconvenience discourages people who don’t want to change. In some countries, including the U.S., political ideologies block progress, as some people claim that emissions-based climate change is a hoax.
Major sources of fossil fuel emissions include not just power plants and vehicles, but production of construction materials. According to the Joint Research Centre, making the cement and steel used in building new roads, bridges and buildings accounts for more than 5 percent of the emissions increase. Production of lime for agricultural use and ammonia for industrial purposes accounts for a surprisingly large amount of emissions, as well. While many industries rely on these materials, alternatives, such as insulative recycled fillers for concrete homes and offices, can reduce their consumption.
While limited funds and a global recession encouraged people to use fewer fossil fuels during 2008 and 2009, that trend is reversing. Without deliberate action, most countries that experienced a reduction in emissions will go back to using the same amount or more of these polluting, non-renewable resources. Fortunately, while renewable energy sources still make up a small part of the market, they are growing more quickly than ever before. Wind power capacity grew by about 23 percent in 2010, with almost half the new installations occurring in China. Solar energy capacity increased by about 71 percent, with 80 percent of that capacity installed in Europe. In 2010, China doubled its existing photovoltaic capacity from 0.5 Gigawatts to 1 Gigawatt, or about twice the capacity of a coal-burning power plant.
Fossil fuel usage continues to increase at an alarming rate. Without major change in the everyday lifestyle of people all over the world, the human race and the planet we live on face serious, irreversible damage. If the emissions rate continues to grow, we could face floods, severe storms, drought, temperature increases and many other disasters. Reducing household use and switching to renewable energy is a start, but to make a big difference, businesses and governments need to do the same.
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